A new wave of demographic analysis reveals a troubling trend for Michigan: the state is projected to lose a significant portion of its population over the next few decades.
Despite efforts to attract new residents and retain current ones, Michigan faces a combination of out-migration, an aging population, and a declining birth rate—all contributing to a projected population decline that could reshape the state’s economic and social landscape.
Michigan’s Population Outlook: The Latest Projections
According to the Michigan Center for Data and Analytics, Michigan’s population is expected to decrease by about 206,000 people (2%) between 2025 and 2050.
Some projections are even more dire, with estimates suggesting the state could lose up to 700,000 residents by 2050, a 7% decline that would bring Michigan’s population down to levels not seen since 1990. These forecasts are based on current trends and highlight the state’s position near the bottom nationally for population growth since 1990.
Key Drivers Behind the Exodus
Several factors are fueling Michigan’s population decline:
Aging Population: The median age in Michigan is rising, now at 39.5 years as of 2025. As the baby boomer generation ages, deaths are projected to outpace births in every county by 2050.
Declining Birth Rates: Every Michigan county is expected to see a drop in births from 2025 to 2050, with a projected natural decrease (more deaths than births) statewide.
Out-Migration: Michigan continues to lose more residents to other states than it gains, with an average annual loss of about 14,000 people to other states in recent years.
Limited In-Migration: While some counties—especially around Grand Rapids—are projected to see modest population growth due to positive migration, the majority of counties are expected to decline.
Regional Variations: Winners and Losers
Growth Areas: Only 25 of Michigan’s 83 counties are projected to grow by 2050, and most of these will see increases of less than 5%. The Grand Rapids metro area stands out as a rare bright spot, with younger populations and net positive migration.
Declining Regions: The western Upper Peninsula, Saginaw Bay region, Wayne County (Detroit), and Genesee County are projected to experience the largest numeric losses. These areas have older populations and have already seen decades of out-migration and natural decrease.
Economic and Social Implications
The projected population decline has far-reaching consequences:
Workforce Shortages: Fewer working-age residents could exacerbate labor shortages, impacting Michigan’s economic competitiveness.
School Closures: The school-age population is expected to fall from 1.58 million in 2020 to 1.48 million by 2050, potentially leading to more school closures.
Infrastructure and Housing: A shrinking population can lead to underused infrastructure and declining housing demand, especially in already struggling regions.
Conclusion
Michigan is at a demographic crossroads. Despite some pockets of growth, the state as a whole faces a future of population decline driven by an aging population, low birth rates, and continued out-migration.
Without significant policy interventions or a reversal of current trends, Michigan’s population could shrink by as much as 7% by 2050, with profound implications for its economy, workforce, and communities. The challenge ahead is not just to slow the exodus, but to create the conditions necessary for sustainable growth and renewal.
Source:
[1] https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-government/michigan-population-may-plummet-700k-26-years-report-warns
[2] https://www.michigan.gov/mcda/insights/2025/03/06/mich-county-popproj-2050
[3] https://crcmich.org/population-projections-portend-future-school-closures
[4] https://nchstats.com/michigan-population/
[5] https://www.michigan.gov/mcda/population/michigan-population-analysis
[6] https://worldpopulationreview.com/states/michigan
[7] https://www.9and10news.com/2025/01/17/northern-michigan-gains-population-through-statewide-growth-concerns/
[8] https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/population-decline-by-state